Quantitative Risk Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering

Professor D Vaughan Griffiths

This comprehensive and hands-on session is designed for professionals and academics eager to explore the growing field of probabilistic analysis and risk assessment in geotechnical engineering.

What You’ll Learn

• A clear, accessible review of basic probability theory—starting from first principles, with no prerequisites required.
• The rationale for incorporating probabilistic methods into geotechnical analysis and risk-based decision-making.
• An introduction to key techniques used in probabilistic geotechnical analysis.
• Understanding the relationship between the Factor of Safety and the Probability of Failure.
• Practical applications of probabilistic methods in routine geotechnical design.
• Live demonstrations and hands-on experience with software tools—participants are encouraged to bring their laptops.
• Complimentary access to several specialised programs for probabilistic geotechnical analysis.
• Insights into the latest advancements and state-of-the-art practices in the field.

Who Should Attend?

• Practicing geotechnical engineers seeking a practical overview of probabilistic and risk-based approaches.
• Academics and students interested in cutting-edge developments—Civil Engineering departments at local universities are especially encouraged to share this opportunity.

About the presenter

Professor D Vaughan Griffiths Professor of Civil Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, USA; Honorary Professor, University of Newcastle, NSW

D. Vaughan Griffiths PhD, DSc, PE, D.GE, C.Eng, FICE, Dist.M.ASCE is a Professor and Head of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Colorado School of Mines, USA. His research interests lie in application of finite element and risk assessment methodologies in geotechnical engineering, and his papers on slope stability analysis are among the most highly cited in the geotechnical engineering literature. He is the co-author of three textbooks that have gone into multiple and foreign language editions on “Programming the Finite Element Method”, “Risk Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering” and “Numerical Methods for Engineers”. He gives regular short courses worldwide on risk assessment in geotechnical engineering and slope stability analysis. He has acted as a consultant to industry on projects ranging from landslide analysis to petroleum geomechanics. He was the inaugural Suzanne Lacasse Lecturer in 2016 and in 2017, was named the Cross-Canada Lecturer by the Canadian Geotechnical Society and received the H. Bolton Seed Medal from the ASCE/Geo-Institute. He gave the TH Wu Distinguished lecture in 2021, the Wilson Tang lecture in 2022 and has been named the Terzaghi Lecturer for 2026. He was awarded a Fulbright Distinguished Chair for 2023 to work at the University of Newcastle, NSW. He served on the Board of Direction of ASCE from 2010-2013 and was inducted as a Distinguished Member of the ASCE in 2020.

Program

Introduction to Risk Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering

• Motivation for the course
• Fundamentals of load and resistance
• Basic probability theory
• Set theory and Venn diagrams
• Conditional probability and the total probability theorem
• Bayes’ theorem

Introduction to Random Variables

• Discrete and continuous random variables
• Common probability density functions
• Identities relating to expectation and variance
• Covariance and correlation
• Example calculation for linear geotechnical functions

Simple Tools for Probabilistic Analysis

• The First Order Second Moment Method (FOSM)
• Example of earth pressure
• The First Order Reliability Method (FORM)
• Example of bearing capacity

More Advanced Tools for Probabilistic Analysis

• Monte-Carlo methods
• Using single random variables
• Repeat the same bearing capacity example
• The Random Finite Element
• Method (RFEM)
• Software demos of seepage, settlement, slopes

Registration

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